In late October, Chinese President Xi Jinping made a notable proclamation at the National Women’s Congress, advocating for the active fostering of a new marriage and childbearing culture. Such a statement carries weight, particularly from a leader of a party that has historically enforced family planning policies. However, the feasibility of reversing China’s baby bust remains a daunting challenge.
At the core of this challenge lies the global trend wherein rising living standards typically result in declining fertility rates. The changing values and lifestyle realities that accompany rising incomes often lead to decreased necessity for children to support household incomes. This trend is well-supported by numerous academic studies and is exemplified by the struggles of countries such as Japan, South Korea, France, Australia, and Russia in reversing population declines, despite extensive efforts and incentives.
China has embarked on endeavors to address its declining birth rates through initiatives focusing on promoting the marriage and childbearing age, encouraging equitable sharing of childbearing responsibilities, and alleviating the financial burdens associated with traditional customs. However, the anticipated gains from these efforts are projected to be marginal, given the persistent nature of demographic trends.
Speculations on potential drastic measures such as abortion bans are met with skepticism, as the efficacy of such approaches in altering fertility rates is uncertain, while also raising significant reproductive rights concerns. Even if China manages to substantially boost its fertility rates, the payoff in terms of a replenished workforce will require a substantial timeframe due to its aging population pyramid resulting from the long-standing one-child policy.
Unlike the U.S., which has largely mitigated similar demographic challenges through mass immigration, China has shown little inclination toward embracing a comparable influx of immigrants. President Xi’s emphasis on promoting a distinct Han Chinese national identity further underscores this divergence in approach.
As China grapples with its demographic headwinds, the implications for its ability to sustain great-power competition and its national power in the coming decades remain uncertain. While China’s influence may continue to grow, the demographic obstacles it faces are poised to significantly impact its national power. Despite its ascent as a leading global player, China will likely navigate this path while contending with the inherent disadvantage posed by its declining population.
China’s endeavor to reverse its declining birth rates reflects a formidable test in the face of entrenched demographic trends. Whether China can surmount these challenges and sustain its national power amidst a shifting demographic landscape remains a crucial area of inquiry for the future.
Market Capital Research 