For many years, Geert Wilders, known as a hard-right firebrand, has been marginalized in mainstream Dutch politics. However, the recent snap election in the Netherlands yielded a surprising outcome, with Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) emerging as the largest party. While his first-place performance puts him in a strong position for coalition talks, it remains uncertain whether any of the other parties are willing to join forces with him.
Regardless of whether Wilders attains power, or in what capacity, the election results have concerning implications for the European Union and its stance on issues like immigration and the free movement of labor. Wilders advocates for a “Nexit” referendum, similar to Brexit, and seeks to end labor mobility within the EU. Additionally, he has voiced plans to reduce military aid to Ukraine. Fellow nationalist leaders across Europe see his rise as a significant victory for their anti-establishment movements.
Experts suggest that the likelihood of the Netherlands completely ending military aid to Ukraine is small, regardless of Wilders’ position. However, the fact that it has become an election-winning issue is troubling for both the EU and Ukraine itself. The scale of Wilders’ victory can be attributed not only to his focus on immigration and cost of living but also to the approach of his center-right rivals. By treating Wilders as a potential coalition partner, they inadvertently bolstered his support among right-wing voters.
If Wilders does enter the Dutch government, there will likely be a more rigid stance on spending, immigration, and asylum policies within the EU. This could strain the relationship between the Netherlands and Brussels, posing challenges for the bloc. Even if Wilders is excluded from the government, his influence on the national and European debates will remain significant, potentially making it difficult for Dutch politics to take a strong pro-Europe stance.
The outcome of the ongoing coalition talks will determine the level of influence Wilders wields in the Netherlands and, by extension, Europe. While excluding the largest party from government is not without precedent, the magnitude of Wilders’ victory makes such a move exceedingly difficult. It could lead to a fragile and divided coalition, as well as a potential legitimacy crisis that Wilders might exploit to bolster his populist narrative.
While the European Union maintains confidence in the Netherlands’ commitment to the EU, the rise of the hard-right in the country has reinvigorated Europe’s populist movements. This resurgence has implications for the European elections scheduled for next year, with the Euroskeptic wing gaining renewed energy.
Geert Wilders’ unexpected success in the Dutch election has far-reaching implications for both the Netherlands and the European Union. Whether he attains power or not, his influence will shape the political landscape and the discourse around important issues in the coming months and years. Europe watches with great interest as the winds of change blow across the continent, uncertain of what they may bring.
Market Capital Research 