In the lead-up to Taiwan’s upcoming elections in January, an unexpected development has emerged—a potential alliance between the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). This collaboration aims to enhance the chances of a more China-friendly government coming into power in Taipei. As cross-strait tensions between Beijing and Washington intensify, the geopolitical implications of this alliance could be far-reaching.
The Context:
As President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping prepare to meet in an effort to address their strained bilateral relationship, the developments in Taiwan hold pivotal importance. With Taiwan increasingly becoming a focal point in the fraught ties between Beijing and Washington, the emergence of a China-friendly government in Taipei could potentially defuse a potential flashpoint between the world’s two economic superpowers.
The Potential Candidate:
While Vice President Lai Ching-te from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has consistently led opinion polls, the alliance between KMT and TPP has raised the likelihood of a government in Taipei that may be more receptive to China’s conditions for direct talks between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. According to political science professor Wang Yeh-lih, the opposition alliance is poised to improve cross-strait tensions regardless of which candidate emerges as the presidential frontrunner.
Beijing’s Stance:
China views the democratically governed Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to assert control. Since President Tsai Ing-wen’s assumption of power in 2016, Beijing has severed direct communication with Taipei due to her refusal to accept China’s claim. It is in China’s interest to see a candidate from the opposition alliance assume the presidential seat as it would align more closely with their position.
The Alliance’s Decision-Making Process:
During talks between KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih, TPP’s Ko Wen-je, KMT Chairman Eric Chu, and former President Ma Ying-jeou, an agreement was reached to conduct public and internal party polls to determine which candidate has the best chance of winning. The final decision will be based on the polling results, and if the gap falls within the margin of error, Hou will be the winner. The joint statement also outlined a plan to form a joint government if the alliance emerges victorious in the election.
The Impact on Current Front-Runner:
While Vice President Lai has consistently topped opinion polls so far, the united opposition campaign, taking place just two months before the election, poses a legitimate threat to his chances. Lai’s success has been largely attributed to a divided opposition, which the KMT-TPP alliance aims to overcome.
The Road Ahead:
The KMT-TPP talks mark the culmination of months of negotiations and pave the way for a potential historic moment where two parties come together to form a coalition government in Taiwan. As the registration deadline for candidates approaches, the political landscape is set for further shifts and realignments. The impact of this alliance on the candidacy of Foxconn Technology Group founder Terry Gou remains uncertain, potentially leaving him on the sidelines.
The potential alliance between the Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party reflects an intriguing development in Taiwan’s upcoming elections. The emergence of a China-friendly government through this united campaign could spark significant shifts in the global geopolitical landscape. As the world keenly observes, the outcome of Taiwan’s elections could have far-reaching implications for cross-strait relations, the balance of power in Asia, and the dynamics between global economic superpowers.
Market Capital Research 