Both North and South Korea have recently been making headlines in the field of space development, with their ambitious efforts to launch homegrown military reconnaissance satellites. While this competition holds significant implications for the two neighboring nations, it also draws vested interests from major global players like Russia and the United States. The development of spy satellites by either side has the potential to deepen the existing geopolitical division between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan on one side, and China, North Korea, and Russia on the other.
According to Michael Raska, an expert on defense and military innovations at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, the ongoing race between the Koreas reflects a broader trajectory of military modernization. He predicts that Russia, China, and North Korea may further collaborate on weapons and other systems, necessitating corresponding responses from the American, South Korean, and Japanese defense forces. Consequently, there is a real possibility that this race could escalate into a proxy technological war, providing increased complexity to an already volatile situation.
Compared to their neighbors, Japan, China, and Russia, both North and South Korea have limited experience in space programs. However, South Korea has been making steady progress over the past years, culminating in becoming the world’s 10th country to deploy a domestically-developed satellite into space in June last year. While South Korea has successfully launched commercial-grade satellites, it still lacks military reconnaissance satellites, relying instead on data provided by U.S. spy satellites for monitoring North Korea.
The value of South Korean satellite data lies in its potential to provide closer-range intelligence, which may not align with the priorities of U.S. spy satellites focused on detecting intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities. Uk Yang, a national security and military strategy expert from the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, points out that the United States may find the data from South Korean satellites beneficial, particularly in understanding the North Korea-Russia alliance, which raises concerns about nuclear threats in the region.
Assessing North Korea’s space program is challenging due to its opacity. The country successfully launched two low-Earth observation satellites in 2012 and 2016, but the satellites’ actual functionality remains uncertain. Recent attempts by Pyongyang to launch spy satellites have ended in failure. However, South Korea’s defense ministry speculates that this delay is partly the result of North Korea incorporating new technological contributions from Russia, following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s commitment to assisting Pyongyang in satellite development.
Experts suggest that North Korea’s pursuit of a military presence in space is less about enhancing defense capabilities and more about bolstering local morale. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un aims to reinforce the hermit state’s defense arsenal to counter the perceived threat from the U.S.-South Korean alliance. In doing so, Kim also seeks to enhance his image among North Koreans, China, and Russia. Beyond military capabilities, Kim wishes to receive political support from these nations, ultimately strengthening his regime’s position.
As for Russia, participation in Pyongyang’s satellite program allows it to expand its relatively smaller security footprint in Northeast Asia. By showcasing its presence in a region largely dominated by China, the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, Russia aims to assert its strategic relevance.
The race for spy satellites between North and South Korea, with interests from other global powers, marks an important chapter in East Asian geopolitics. What initially seems like a competition solely between the rival Koreas holds potential implications for regional security and the shifting balance of power. As this race unfolds, the interplay between technology, military capabilities, political alliances, and national aspirations will shape the future of the East Asian geopolitical landscape.
Market Capital Research 