A Week of Key Events: Bitcoin’s Resilience, Powell’s Speech, Bloomberg TV Documentary, Options Expiry, and US PCE Report

As the Bitcoin and crypto landscape continues its rapid evolution, this week stands out as a pivotal juncture filled with events that have the potential to reshape market sentiments and dynamics. From Bitcoin’s price performance to macroeconomic indicators and significant documentaries, here’s a closer look at the key events that every enthusiast and investor should be keenly observing this week.

Can Bitcoin Hold Above $30,000?

Bitcoin, as in previous early stages of a bull market, is currently the driving force in the entire crypto market. The escalating hope that a spot Bitcoin ETF could be approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission by the end of this year has brought back the bullish momentum. As Google Trends shows, interest in a Bitcoin ETF has returned among retail investors. Google’s Search volume hit a 12-month high last week.

However, it is questionable whether the current movement is sustainable. Some experts warn that futures are overheating. “Bitcoin funding rates have quickly gone from negative to +0.01 as Bitcoin breaks $30,000. Traders becoming more bullish,” remarked the market intelligence platform Decentrader via X.

Meanwhile, crypto and macro analyst Mortensen Bach tweeted: “Bitcoin: So far so good! Swiped the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and now we’re retesting the $30,000-$30,500 level. What we want to see is bulls defending those $30,000 to confirm the breakout higher!”

Wednesday: Powell Speaks

Last week’s speech by Jerome Powell moved the markets quite a bit as the Fed chairman reiterated “higher for longer” while also signaling a rate hike pause for the upcoming FOMC meeting next week, from October 31-November 1, 2023.

Amidst the turmoil in the bond market, the US yield curve kept bear-steepening with a 2-year/10-year spread jumping 19 bps. Although no surprises are expected in comparison to last week’s speech, a Jerome Powell speech should always be on the watchlist.

Thursday: Bloomberg TV’s SBF Documentary Premieres

Bloomberg TV will unveil its much-anticipated documentary, “RUIN: Money, Ego, and Deception at FTX” on October 26, chronicling the meteoric rise and fall of FTX’s founder, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF). The production will offer insights into the downfall of the crypto exchange, shedding light on the tumultuous journey it went through.

A Bloomberg Originals production, the documentary amalgamates investigative journalism with firsthand accounts from industry insiders to paint a comprehensive picture of FTX’s downfall and the subsequent legal challenges SBF faces.

Friday: $3.6 Billion Crypto Options Expiry on Deribit

Friday might see pronounced volatility in the crypto realm, with $3.6 billion in notional crypto options set to expire on Deribit, the world’s largest options exchange. Bitcoin accounts for $2.25 billion of this amount, constituting 21.4% of all BTC options open interest on Deribit.

Bitcoin analyst Dylan LeClair has been keenly observing strong shifts in the options market. LeClair tweeted about a notable trend: “For 3-month options, calls are trading at the largest ever premium relative to puts.” He emphasized the concept of ‘skew’ in gauging market sentiment, pointing out bullishness in the options market.

Friday’s US PCE Report For September

From a macro standpoint, the forthcoming US Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report for September is poised to significantly influence both the wider financial market and the crypto landscape. The PCE Index, the Fed’s inflation yardstick, will furnish insights into consumer trends.

This data is pivotal for economists and the Fed, offering a clearer picture of economic health before the imminent rate decision during the FOMC meeting on October 31-November 1.

Beyond the realm of crypto, the announcement of the Q3 2023 US Gross domestic product (GDP) will also capture significant attention this week, potentially influencing broader market sentiments.

For investors, this week promises a riveting blend of events and revelations. From Bitcoin’s performance trajectory to pivotal macroeconomic updates, the coming days are pivotal for anyone keenly tracking the Bitcoin and crypto landscape and broader financial markets.

At press time, BTC traded at $30,570.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this research report is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. The NFT and cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and readers should conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.

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