In Myanmar, resistance forces, buoyed by the support of multiple armed ethnic groups and a shadow government formed after the 2021 coup, have gained control over approximately 60% of the country’s territory. As violent confrontations escalate across the nation, the ruling junta led by Min Aung Hlaing faces a crumbling economy and growing dissension within its own ranks. The resistance’s strategic advances are now positioning them to challenge the ruling junta in key strongholds, raising concerns for the military regime’s grip on power.
Increasing Armed Conflict:
As the economy deteriorates, the military finds itself grappling with a multi-front conflict against various armed ethnic groups. The combination of ground attacks by the shadow government and other armed factions, including near the capital city of Naypyidaw, has intensified the violence. The acting leader of the exiled National Unity Government, Duwa Lashi La, expressed optimism about the collaboration between People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) and ethnic revolutionary forces, noting that their joint efforts are yielding positive outcomes. He stated, “We are now in a position to even threaten Naypyidaw.”
Control and Resistance:
While the junta still retains authority over key cities, a previous assessment by Myanmar experts indicated that the military controlled just 17% of the country’s land area. Recent reports of attacks on junta installations in the capital reinforce the resistance’s growing influence and their ability to challenge the regime’s authority. Nonetheless, Major General Zaw Min Tun, the lead spokesman for the ruling State Administration Council, has refrained from commenting on the extent of the opposition’s territorial control, consistently referring to the NUG and its allies as terrorists.
International Pressure and Sanctions:
In December, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution demanding an end to violence in Myanmar and the release of political prisoners. Although the resolution’s impact was limited by abstentions from China, Russia, and India, the military regime has faced setbacks in generating revenue due to economic sanctions imposed by the United States and its partners. These sanctions have impeded the junta’s ability to sustain its operations and maintain control over the civilian population.
Escalating Brutality and Humanitarian Concerns:
Despite economic challenges, the military has expanded its assaults on Myanmar’s civilian population of approximately 55 million. Between April 2022 and July of this year, nearly 700 air strikes were carried out, more than double the number witnessed in the 14 months following the 2021 coup. These aerial attacks, coupled with mass killings and the burning of villages, aim to deter civilians from supporting the resistance and collaborating with the junta’s adversaries. Such brutality has raised significant humanitarian concerns.
Resistance Gains and Internal Challenges:
Duwa Lashi La, the acting president of the National Unity Government and a Kachin politician and lawyer, revealed that resistance fighters have successfully captured over 100 junta outposts through thousands of clashes with government troops. Furthermore, they have facilitated approximately 14,000 military defections. Reports suggest that morale within the junta is wavering, and recent corruption investigations have led to the replacement of two lieutenant generals in close proximity to Min Aung Hlaing. In response to widespread unrest, the regime recently extended the state of emergency for another six months, extinguishing hopes of a general election this year.
The Status of Aung San Suu Kyi:
Amidst these developments, the fate of Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of the ousted civilian government, remains uncertain, facing potential life imprisonment. Duwa Lashi La expressed concerns about the lack of transparency surrounding her health but emphasized that even if she were released, it might not significantly alter the course of the conflict. He stated, “There may be something Daw Aung San Suu Kyi wants to be, and we will have to take it into consideration. But we will not change our direction for her voice only.”
Myanmar’s resistance movement, bolstered by the collaboration between armed ethnic groups and the shadow government, is tightening its grip on approximately 60% of the country’s territory. The ruling junta, grappling with a faltering economy and mounting internal dissent, now faces heightened threats in key strongholds. As violence escalates and the resistance gains ground, the international community’s attention remains fixed on the plight of Myanmar’s civilian population and the long-term prospects for democratic governance in the country.
Market Capital Research 