In recent times, the Biden Administration has been devoting significant diplomatic efforts to facilitate a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Such an accord is seen as a transformative event in a region often associated with conflict and diplomatic challenges. However, while the potential benefits are evident, it is crucial for the White House to proceed with caution and consider the potential risks and costs of this endeavor.
The Urgency of a Diplomatic Achievement:
Amidst an array of global challenges, the Biden Administration has prioritized the pursuit of an Israel-Saudi normalization agreement, understanding the potential significance and positive implications for the Middle East. With senior officials expressing a broad understanding of the key elements, this diplomatic achievement holds great promise. President Biden himself aims to discuss this matter with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the U.N. General Assembly.
The Price of Accomplishment:
As the US endeavors to make progress in this venture, it is essential to address the question of how much it is willing to sacrifice to reach the finish line. While Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman acknowledges the significance of this agreement to US foreign policy, it is important to recognize the obstacles and demands he faces within Saudi Arabia and the broader Arab world. The prince requires substantial concessions from Israel to garner domestic support, ranging from recognition of Muslim rights in Jerusalem to a comprehensive resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute or increased Palestinian Authority control in the West Bank. Consequently, it is clear that Saudi Arabia will not accept an agreement without extracting its own set of concessions.
Extraction of US concessions:
In order to secure a normalization accord, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seeks a U.S. security guarantee. This would obligate the United States to defend Saudi Arabia in the event of an external attack, similar to the 2019 cruise missile strikes on major Saudi oil facilities. However, offering such a security guarantee carries numerous risks and downsides that must be seriously considered.
Challenges with the Saudi Partnership:
Granting a security guarantee to Saudi Arabia would result in an unequal mutual defense clause. Historically, the partnership has revealed a lack of strong cooperation from the Saudi side, particularly during times when the US sought assistance. Saudi Arabia’s contribution to countering the Islamic State (IS) was limited, while other regional partners actively engaged in military operations against the group. Furthermore, a security guarantee would effectively place US forces in the role of security guards for the Saudi royal family, diverting resources and focus away from other critical priorities.
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