As Russia faces mounting isolation on the global stage following its invasion of Ukraine, it has sought to establish alliances wherever possible. In recent weeks, not only did Russian President Vladimir Putin welcome North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un for discussions on an arms deal, but a delegation from Myanmar also visited Moscow. The purpose of their visit was to sign a memorandum of understanding for cooperation between the two countries’ election commissions.
Background on Election Monitoring in Myanmar:
Over the past decade, numerous international observers and organizations have been involved in monitoring elections in Myanmar. This involvement reached its peak during the 2015 and 2020 elections when thousands of international observers were accredited to oversee the voting process. However, after the military coup in 2021, which threw the country into violent political turmoil, monitoring organizations decided to abstain from observing any future elections organized by the junta to avoid legitimizing what they perceive as a “sham” process.
Myanmar’s Embrace of Russian Expertise:
With the exact timing of Myanmar’s first election since the coup still uncertain (originally scheduled for this year, but postponed until at least 2025), Myanmar has turned to its longtime ally, Russia, for guidance. Russia has been a supplier of weapons to the junta, which have been used against the country’s own citizens. The Myanmar delegation’s visit to Moscow in September included discussions on topics such as “voter education” and “effective media utilization.” State media reported that the delegation explored Russia’s election methods, campaign procedures, and cultural aspects. Additionally, U Thein Soe, the chair of Myanmar’s election commission, was invited to observe Russia’s presidential election next year, a process often criticized for its lack of fair competition.
Implications and Facade of Legitimacy:
According to Anna Matveeva, a visiting senior research fellow at the Russia Institute in King’s College London, this new cooperation agreement allows Russia to demonstrate its alliances on the global stage. It also provides Myanmar’s junta with a much-needed endorsement for its future election, as it finds itself increasingly isolated by its usual diplomatic partners. While the agreement may result in a semblance of legitimacy in terms of procedural adherence and participation, it is likely to be under a certain degree of control and scrutiny.
Myanmar’s Shifting Alliances:
As division among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members regarding Myanmar grows, the junta has found itself aligning with states that have also faced rejection or marginalization from Western institutions. Myanmar recently achieved dialogue partner status within the China-led security bloc Shanghai Cooperation Organization and is now seeking to join BRICS—an economic bloc that offers an alternative to the Western-dominated order. By establishing new alliances, the junta aims to engage itself in a different global architecture while acknowledging that it operates outside of the established norms.
Myanmar’s decision to seek election expertise from Russia reflects its desire to establish alternative alliances in the face of growing isolation from traditional diplomatic partners. While the cooperation agreement may provide a veneer of legitimacy to future elections organized by the junta, it is important to assess whether it will be characterized by genuine fairness and transparency. As the political turmoil in Myanmar continues, the country’s trajectory remains uncertain, leaving both domestic and international stakeholders closely monitoring developments.
Market Capital Research 