Republished with full copyright permissions from The Washington Daily Chronicle.

As millions of Russians participate in regional elections, set to conclude on September 10, all eyes are on President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party. Despite it being widely expected to win the majority of contests, this tightly controlled vote serves as a crucial test for the beleaguered strongman. Following the Wagner rebellion, which marked the biggest challenge to Putin’s 23-year tenure, pressure has mounted on the Kremlin amidst a backdrop of economic turmoil and the increased toll of the Ukraine conflict. Consequently, these elections hold significant weight for both Putin and his opposition, each striving to solidify their positions in Russian politics.

The Importance of the Vote:
Spanning half of Russia, alongside the occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Russian-annexed Crimea, over 4,000 contests are held, involving positions such as governors, mayors, and deputies to the State Duma. Putin’s consolidation of power over the years has altered electoral rules in his favor, making it increasingly challenging for opposition figures to participate. Accusations of voter fraud are rife, and organizations such as Freedom House have downgraded Russia’s rating to “Not Free.” Consequently, the Kremlin hopes that this election will reaffirm its message that, even when given a choice, Putin retains his dominance.

With War Looming in the Background:
Although the Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly transformed the country over the past 18 months, it has rarely featured explicitly in the campaign discourse. Given the sensitivity surrounding the conflict, the Kremlin’s advised United Russia candidates to avoid discussing the war. Nonetheless, it permeates all aspects of Russian society. Veterans issues have emerged as one of the few ways in which the war is explicitly addressed, while politicians who support or oppose the war must tread carefully to avoid controversy.

Opposition Aspirations:
While United Russia is predicted to achieve a clean sweep, some pockets of resistance may impede its dominance in the elections. A prominent contest is anticipated for the governorship of Khakassia, a remote Siberian region renowned for its natural beauty. Valentin Konovalov, the incumbent Communist Party candidate, is likely to win reelection in the absence of his Kremlin-backed competitor, Sergei Sokol, who withdrew from the race citing illness. Critics argue that Sokol harbored little chance against Konovalov, revealing the inherent limitations to the Kremlin’s power. Yabloko, a longstanding liberal opposition party, is fielding 216 candidates across various offices seeking to challenge United Russia’s supremacy.

With Russia grappling with political suppression and a war on its doorstep, these regional elections hold immense significance. Despite the perceived inevitability of United Russia’s victory, opposition parties continue to fight for their toehold in Russian politics. These elections serve as both a litmus test for Putin’s legitimacy and as an opportunity for opposition figures to galvanize support. As Ukrainians and Western nations condemn these elections in the occupied territories as illegitimate, the impact on the ongoing conflict remains uncertain.