Guatemala’s recent presidential election, held on August 20, 2023, came to a definitive conclusion with the certification of progressive candidate Bernardo Arévalo as the winner. However, the aftermath of the election has been overshadowed by complex legal battles and political maneuverings that have thrown the legitimacy of the results into question.
The Fight Against Corruption and Impunity:
To comprehend the intricate web surrounding Guatemala’s election, it is crucial to recognize the deeply rooted problem of corruption that has plagued the country for years. In response to rampant governmental corruption and impunity, a United Nations-backed commission called CICIG was deployed in 2006 to combat this widespread issue. The commission achieved significant milestones, including the resignation and subsequent imprisonment of former President Otto Pérez Molina and his vice president in 2015. However, this progress faced setbacks when President Jimmy Morales, along with influential political figures, disbanded the commission in 2019, indicating a shift in priorities.
The Government’s Targeting of Judicial Authorities:
Under the current administration led by President Alejandro Giammattei and the attorney general Consuelo Porras, criminal investigations have been directed towards those who once fought against corruption. Judges, magistrates, prosecutors, and critics involved in various corruption cases have been forced to flee the country under the threat of legal action. Such actions have not gone unnoticed, as even the U.S. government has criticized these moves, revoking Porras’ U.S. visa and denouncing her unjustified actions.
The Link to Arévalo’s Campaign:
Bernardo Arévalo campaigned on a platform centered around combating corruption, generating concern among those in power. Allegations have emerged, claiming that some of the signatures collected to register Arévalo’s Seed Movement party were illegal. Despite the clear provisions in the law that prohibit the suspension of a political party during a campaign, Porras’ office has sought the suspension of Arévalo’s party, potentially undermining his ability to garner support in congress.
The Phenomenon of ‘Lawfare’:
Guatemala’s electoral process has experienced obstructive legal tactics that can be described as ‘lawfare.’ These tactics involve multiple prosecutions and lawsuits aimed at silencing or discrediting dissidents or opponents. Several popular candidates were initially barred from participating in the first round of elections due to technicalities, and the attorney general’s office even raided the headquarters of the electoral authority to seize evidence related to the investigation of Arévalo’s party.
Evaluating the Prosecutors’ Allegations:
Prosecutors present allegations related to falsified signatures and the inclusion of deceased individuals among the collected signatures. While the attorney general’s office claims that some signature collectors were paid, it is worth noting that such practices are legal and commonly employed in other countries, including the United States. Supporters of Arévalo argue that these allegations of irregularities are minor in comparison to the millions of valid votes cast.
The Future Outlook:
Despite the challenges and attempts to delegitimize Arévalo’s victory, it is improbable for any substantial obstacle to prevent his assumption of office on January 14. However, the focus of his opponents now seems to be on minimizing his legislative support, potentially limiting his effectiveness as president. Former congressman Roberto Alejos highlights the concerns surrounding legal instability, which could negatively impact the economy, tourism, the rule of law, and overall investment in the country.
Guatemala’s recent presidential election has been marred by complex legal battles, stemming from corruption, government interference, and allegations of fraud. While the certification of Bernardo Arévalo as the winner signifies the expressed will of the people, the lingering uncertainties surrounding his assumption of power raise valid concerns about political stability and economic implications for the nation. The coming months will undoubtedly be crucial in determining the trajectory of Guatemala’s democratic process and its ability to combat corruption effectively.
Market Capital Research 