Republished with full copyright permissions from The Washington Daily Chronicle.

The supposed demise of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, has given rise to speculation regarding the fate of this influential mercenary organization, which has played a significant role in the Russia-Ukraine war. Prigozhin and his second-in-command Dmitry Utkin are believed to have perished in a plane crash that occurred on Wednesday.

Alongside Prigozhin and Utkin, three crew members and five other individuals associated with Wagner were reported to have lost their lives in the incident. Among them were Valery Chekalov, an ally of Prigozhin overseeing his assets in Syria, and Sergey Propustin, Prigozhin’s personal security guard and a Chechen war veteran.

Initial U.S. intelligence reports suggest that the crash was an intentional assassination, possibly resulting from a bomb explosion or sabotage attempt while the plane was midair. Russian authorities have announced a criminal investigation into the incident, with many speculating that Russian President Vladimir Putin orchestrated the crash as retribution for Prigozhin’s rebellion against the Moscow government earlier this year.

The Wagner Group, established as a for-profit military company in 2014 and backed by the Kremlin, has played a crucial role in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, according to experts. Prigozhin’s insubordination posed the most direct threat to Putin’s leadership since he came to power. Following the mutiny, Prigozhin was allowed to reside in Belarus under a truce facilitated by President Alexander Lukashenko, although he was spotted in Russia the following month. Nonetheless, it was widely anticipated that Prigozhin’s rebellion would not go unpunished.

The question arises as to who will succeed Prigozhin as the head of the Wagner Group. Amalendu Misra, a professor of international politics at Lancaster University, suggests that the group’s leadership structure is shrouded in secrecy, making it difficult to ascertain the successor. However, despite the disruption caused by Wagner to Putin’s government, Misra predicts that the paramilitary group will continue to play a vital role in Russian foreign policy and maintain its distinctiveness from the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Although Moscow has previously denied any association with Wagner, the Kremlin has recently acknowledged its relationship with the group. Putin stated in June that Wagner was “fully financed” by the state. However, the Kremlin has carefully maintained a distinction between the organization and the state, as acknowledging a new leader would potentially invite legal issues and accusations of war crimes. Misra suggests that the appointment of a new leader will likely be done surreptitiously and quietly.

Prigozhin, known for his close ties to Putin and his active presence on social media, frequently criticized Russian defense figures in his posts. According to Misra, it is likely that Putin will select a successor with a less public profile, in contrast to Prigozhin’s outspoken nature.

Following the mutiny, Wagner was officially disbanded in Ukraine, and U.S. intelligence reports indicate no presence of Wagner fighters within the country. However, the Wagner Group continues to be active in Belarus, providing special forces training and gaining recognition as an educational company registered by the Belarusian government in August.

Wagner’s efficiency and autonomy on the battlefield have made it an invaluable asset for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. The group’s independence from the Russian government enables the Putin regime to maintain plausible deniability regarding its military activities, conducting operations both within Ukraine and across the globe in a covert manner.

Wagner has also maintained a presence in Africa for the past decade, supporting autocratic regimes and participating in various conflicts. Prigozhin’s rebellion against the Russian state shed light on the complex relationship between Wagner and Moscow, with the group’s operations in Africa being hailed by both sides. The presumed death of Prigozhin is likely to demoralize Wagner personnel in Africa and may caution regional leaders against getting too close to Moscow. However, African countries will likely continue engaging with Russia as they perceive multipolarity as beneficial.

Despite the uncertainties surrounding its leadership, Wagner is expected to remain present in Africa due to its strategic importance for Russia’s foreign policy. The group’s business model aligns with Russia’s approach of appealing to African states feeling neglected by the West. Wagner serves as a valuable asset for Putin as Russia faces international isolation, ensuring its continued involvement in Africa.