For over 15 years, the political landscape in Thailand has been shadowed by the influence of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Despite living in exile since his ouster in a 2006 coup d’état and facing corruption convictions, Thaksin has remained a formidable force in Thai politics. However, recent developments have shown cracks in his once unshakeable grip on power, as a new party with radical ideas has emerged and threats to his return to Thailand have arisen.
In the aftermath of May’s general election, the Move Forward Party, with its bold agenda to challenge the military and monarchy, managed to surpass Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party in terms of voter support. This unexpected turn of events led to temporary alliances and subsequent betrayals within the political landscape. Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party joined forces with the Move Forward Party, only for Thaksin to ultimately strike a deal with establishment-leaning parties that had been responsible for his sister’s removal from power.
On a momentous Tuesday morning, Thaksin returned to Thailand after an absence of more than a decade. Stepping off the plane dressed in a navy blue suit and pink necktie, he expressed his desire to reconnect with his fellow Thai citizens and live in the land he once governed. His return coincided with a crucial parliamentary vote that could potentially result in the appointment of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, a candidate from the Pheu Thai party. While Pheu Thai denies any direct correlation between Thaksin’s return and the vote, attributing it instead to auspicious astrological timing, the truth reveals a more pragmatic motivation.
After years of turbulent clashes with the Thai establishment, Thaksin has seemingly abandoned his fervent supporters in order to ensure his homecoming. Upon his arrival, he was swiftly arrested and transported to the Supreme Court and then to Bangkok Remand Prison. Despite his lengthy convictions in absentia, expectations are low regarding the likelihood of him serving even a fraction of his sentences. Speculation about a potential royal pardon continues to circulate.
The fallout from Thaksin’s alliance with the establishment has left many of his former supporters disillusioned and enraged. While a sizeable crowd gathered at the airport to welcome him back, social media has become an outlet for scorned ex-followers who have expressed their outrage by burning Pheu Thai shirts and banners. Memories of violent clashes between Thaksin’s supporters and his new coalition partners still haunt their collective consciousness, notably the tragic events of 2010 which led to the death of numerous Thaksin supporters during a central Bangkok protest quashed by the police.
The unexpected partnership between Thaksin and the political elite, which ultimately keeps the democratically elected Move Forward Party out of power, has provoked the ire of many. Previously seen as sworn adversaries, this cynical marriage of convenience reveals the deep-seated fear within the Thai elite of facing a party that aims to dismantle existing institutions. Move Forward seeks to abolish Thailand’s controversial royal defamation law, military conscription, and the unelected Senate. The resounding success of their manifesto struck terror into the hearts of the entrenched elite.
For Thaksin, the decision to strike this deal represents a recognition of the decline in his popularity and dwindling credibility, as well as the financial crisis faced by the Pheu Thai party. With his reputation as a pro-democracy figure crumbling, it appears to be his last chance to regain influence and relevance. Nevertheless, this development constitutes a dark day for Thailand’s democracy movement, which had been celebrating Move Forward’s unprecedented victory. Recent allegations against party leader Pita Limjaroenrat may lead to his expulsion from politics and dissolution of the party, echoing the fate of the Future Forward Party and previous incarnations of Pheu Thai.
At the very least, it is hoped that the resolution of the political impasse, culminating in the selection of a Prime Minister after three months of uncertainty, will help steer the country’s 70 million citizens back onto the path of stability and economic growth. Thailand’s GDP growth has significantly slowed, with the second quarter of 2023 recording a mere 0.2% growth compared to the previous 1.7%. As a nation reliant on tourism, stability and effective leadership are urgently needed.
However, amidst these political maneuverings, Thai democracy continues to face significant obstacles. The frustration among the people is palpable, as they yearn for a democratically elected government that can guide the country forward. Yet, Thaksin’s return compounds the challenges that lie ahead, hampering progress and casting yet another shadow over the much-needed democratic transformation.
Market Capital Research 