Months of political uncertainty in Thailand have finally culminated in the appointment of Srettha Thavisin as the country’s new prime minister. Srettha, a prominent Bangkok real estate tycoon and advocate for queer rights and environmental sustainability, has garnered significant support from businesses. However, his ascent to power is not indicative of a new era in Thai politics but rather a last-ditch effort by the populist Pheu Thai party and the conservative establishment to retain control.
The recent general election in May saw the progressive Move Forward Party secure the highest number of votes, promising a departure from the military and monarchy-aligned rule that has dominated Thailand in the past decade. Initially, Pheu Thai, which finished second in the polls, formed an alliance with Move Forward to challenge the establishment. However, faced with opposition from the conservative forces, Pheu Thai abandoned the alliance and joined hands with the military-aligned parties it had previously opposed.
Creating a fragile coalition government, Pheu Thai must now contend with the daunting task of reconciling former adversaries while earning the support of its own disappointed base and an increasingly influential progressive movement. The rupture with Move Forward has implications that stretch beyond the immediate challenges, as Pheu Thai’s short-term focus clashes with Move Forward’s long-term vision for a more progressive Thailand.
Although Pheu Thai pledges to pursue some of the shared policies outlined in its initial memorandum of understanding with Move Forward – such as marriage equality and reforms to the police, military, and judiciary – the party’s new coalition hinges on the exclusion of Move Forward and a commitment to maintaining the controversial lese-majeste law. This move has damaged Pheu Thai’s reputation among liberal and pro-democracy voters, while bolstering Move Forward’s standing as the progressive alternative.
The formation of the so-called “government of reconciliation” by Pheu Thai has been met with criticism, with a sizable majority of the public expressing disapproval in a recent poll. This coalition, which unites figures from the military-backed establishment with former Red Shirt supporters of Pheu Thai, represents a political gamble with uncertain repercussions. The return of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was greeted by emotional Red Shirt supporters after years of self-exile, further complicates the dynamics.
Observers question how effectively a government composed of disparate groups with conflicting interests can govern and fulfill campaign promises. Maintaining a wavering alliance heavily reliant on appeasing various parties may hinder the implementation of desired policies. The allocation of ministerial positions amidst the coalition highlights the considerable influence of conservative forces, potentially undermining Pheu Thai’s ability to effect meaningful change.
Pheu Thai’s pact with former adversaries risks alienating its core supporters, betraying the mandate they entrusted to the party. The uncertainty surrounding the new government and the perceived concession to the conservative establishment may provoke protests and discontent from pro-democracy activists and Red Shirt supporters.
Nonetheless, the future remains hopeful for the progressive movement and Move Forward. Experts suggest that the party’s unwavering commitment to its principles will bolster its return in the political landscape. Although it may take time, the young and ambitious Move Forward Party is likely to regain strength and challenge for leadership in future elections.
Thailand’s new prime minister ushers in a politically fragile coalition that may compromise Pheu Thai’s credibility and ability to enact change. As the country navigates these uncertain waters, the progressive movement waits in the wings, poised to emerge stronger and shape Thailand’s democratic future.
Market Capital Research 