Ecuador, once considered an oasis of peace amidst the turmoil of neighboring countries, has recently experienced a shocking surge in violence. With a rapidly increasing homicide rate, the upcoming presidential election is shrouded in fear and uncertainty.
In the past, Ecuador successfully avoided the drug-related violence that plagued much of Latin America due to a combination of government policies and a cautious relationship with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The absence of large-scale violence was shattered when the FARC signed a peace agreement with Colombia, leaving a power vacuum in the cocaine trade. Organized crime groups, both domestic and foreign, seized the opportunity to control this lucrative trade, leading to a dramatic rise in violence.
Parallel to these developments, Ecuador’s former president, Rafael Correa, implemented policies aimed at alleviating poverty and reducing crime. Although these policies initially showed positive results, they came at the cost of accumulating significant debts. Correa’s investments in social services, increased budgets for the police, and the construction of mega-prisons had unintended consequences. While crime rates may have dropped temporarily, it was within these prisons that the country’s current gangs began to form.
With Mexico, Venezuela, and Colombia competing fiercely, Ecuador’s Pacific coast has become a battleground for controlling ports crucial to cocaine trafficking. The country’s geographical location, strategically connected to markets in Europe and Asia, has enticed these criminal organizations to exploit it as a key transit point. This competition among gangs has further exacerbated the violence, leaving Ecuadorians living in constant fear.
As Ecuadorians prepare to vote in the upcoming presidential election, concerns about crime levels have become central. The frustration with weak democratic institutions, which many perceive as incapable of tackling the violence issue, is growing in Latin America. Some look to leaders like El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, who adopted controversial measures to combat violence but faced criticism for potentially undermining democracy. Jan Topić, a candidate in Ecuador’s election, has positioned himself as an Ecuadorian Bukele, promising to eradicate gang violence at any cost. His popularity suggests a significant portion of the population yearns for a leader who can restore safety and stability.
Ecuador’s rapid descent into violence over such a short period calls for a comprehensive understanding of its roots. The void left by the FARC’s demobilization, along with concurrent domestic policy choices, has created an environment ripe for criminal activity. As Ecuador’s democracy hangs in the balance, it is crucial to address the systemic issues that have allowed violence to flourish and explore strategies that can restore peace, security, and trust in the country’s institutions.
Market Capital Research 