Altcoins on the Verge of Final Capitulation: Is August the Turning Point?

Investors are fascinated by the allure of altcoins and their potential for incredible returns, particularly during bullish crypto markets. However, it is important to acknowledge the higher risks and volatility associated with these high beta assets. Currently, the altcoin market seems to be approaching a potential point of final capitulation, and several technical indicators support this notion. Notably, August appears to be a crucial month in this context.

One significant technical indicator signaling a change in the trajectory of the altcoin market is the TD9 sell setup in Bitcoin Dominance on the 1M TD Sequential chart. These sell setups are confirmed with a higher high or higher low, depending on the sequence’s direction. Interestingly, this suggests that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) may achieve one more high in August before a larger reversal occurs between Bitcoin and altcoins.

A compelling comparison can be drawn between the altcoin market and Bitcoin between 2013 and 2015. By examining the price action during this period, we observe that after a peak in November, altcoins experienced a bottom 59 bars later in December. Similarly, Bitcoin reached its peak in November 2013 and bottomed in January 2015, precisely matching the timeline of the altcoin market. Although the price movements differ, there is a possibility that altcoins could witness a double-bottom scenario in August. This aligns seamlessly with the first or second week of the month, as indicated by historical patterns in BTCUSD.

Taking a zoomed-out look at the cyclical behavior between Ethereum and Bitcoin in ETHBTC, an intriguing observation emerges. Should the corrective behavior continue to adhere to cyclical accuracy, it suggests that a bottom will be established between these two cryptocurrencies within the next two months. Bitcoin may outperform Ether due to altcoins experiencing a greater crash or Bitcoin rallying while altcoins remain relatively stable. Given the occurrences throughout this year, it is conceivable that we have not yet witnessed the end of these events. However, once they do conclude, it may signify a favorable time to favor altcoins once again.

As the altcoin market approaches what appears to be a potential point of final capitulation, investors should be mindful of the risks and volatility that accompanies high beta assets. Technical indicators, such as the TD Sequential sell setup in Bitcoin Dominance and historic timing patterns, suggest that August holds significance for a potential market shift. Moreover, cyclical behavior in Ethereum versus Bitcoin further supports the possibility of a bottom forming within the next two months. While the altcoin market journey remains unpredictable, vigilance and prudent evaluation of these indicators can aid investors in making informed decisions.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this research report is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. The NFT and cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and readers should conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.

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