Republished with full copyright permissions from The Washington Daily Chronicle.

The Biden administration has been actively pursuing a Middle Eastern NATO-like alliance, focusing on regional integration and cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, the United States and Saudi Arabia find themselves in a complex and shifting relationship, shaped by historical events and divergent priorities. As both countries navigate new dynamics in the region, the path to a closer alliance requires addressing security guarantees, defense pacts, and cooperation on a civilian nuclear program.

Historical events such as the Arab Spring, the American shale revolution, the rise of Iran, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the growing economic development and independence of both nations have contributed to a fraying of the ties between the United States and Saudi Arabia. While the relationship is not broken, it is marked by mutual distrust and conflicting priorities. In high-level meetings, the mismatch in priorities often becomes apparent.

Efforts to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel face hurdles due to the insistence by Saudi Arabia, particularly by 87-year-old King Salman, on major security guarantees. Riyadh seeks a defense pact with the United States, aiming to solidify its security and deter rivals such as Iran and the Houthis. Additionally, Saudi Arabia looks for U.S. support in developing a civilian nuclear program, which would be in line with neighboring countries like the UAE and Turkey. However, concerns over Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and U.S. distrust in providing nuclear know-how create challenges for meeting these demands.

Aligning on broader issues remains a significant obstacle for the United States and Saudi Arabia. The war-weary U.S. prioritizes dealing with Russia, China, and Iran, making a defense pact with an actively involved country like Saudi Arabia politically challenging. Human rights concerns and fears of nuclear proliferation also cast doubts on Saudi Arabia’s suitability for a civilian nuclear program. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia’s independent actions, such as coordinating with Russia in the energy market and expanding ties with China, raise questions about its willingness to align with U.S. interests.

Saudi Arabia’s ambitious post-oil economic diversification plan, Vision 2030, shapes its foreign policy decisions. As the country seeks to transition from an oil-dependent economy, maintaining stable oil prices becomes crucial for financing non-oil sectors. Riyadh’s coordination with Russia on oil price stability, despite its impact on American interests, underscores the urgency to succeed in economic diversification. This lens also explains Saudi Arabia’s outreach to former rivals like Turkey and Iran for investments and regional stability, focusing less on conflicts outside its immediate sphere.

Despite the strains and shifting priorities, defense ties between the United States and Saudi Arabia remain critical. Saudi Arabia heavily relies on U.S. military hardware and counterterrorism support. While replacement options may take years or decades, China and Russia’s friendly relations with Iran diminish their appeal as security guarantors. The shared need for counterterrorism efforts and potential threats like Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon keeps both countries bound, even as tensions persist.

The evolving landscape of US-Saudi relations presents both challenges and opportunities. The United States will progressively rely less on Saudi oil as its energy transition unfolds, emboldening Washington to take a more critical stance on Saudi political issues. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, may be less inclined to take sides in conflicts such as China’s potential invasion of Taiwan unless significant benefits are offered by Israel or other parties. While discomfort remains evident on both sides, limiting the ability to halt potential gaps, there is still room for strategic cooperation and alignment.

The evolving nature of US-Saudi relations mirrors a complex geopolitical landscape. As the Biden administration pursues a region-wide integrated defense network anchored by a Saudi-Israel alliance, challenges arise due to diverging priorities and demands. The United States and Saudi Arabia must navigate these complexities, seeking common ground while acknowledging the strains in their relationship. As both countries face evolving domestic and international dynamics, the future of their alliance will require continued dialogue, compromise, and an understanding of the changing regional context.