Last week’s unexpected coup in Niger has sent shockwaves throughout Africa’s Sahel region and the global community. Known as the last pro-Western stronghold in a region marked by frequent military takeovers, Niger’s political turmoil has raised concerns about the potential destabilization of the area. However, what has caught the attention of the Western world is the sight of Nigeriens demonstrating their affinity for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, contradicting the prevalent perception of him as an international pariah.
In recent years, a “new scramble for Africa” has unfolded, with major powers like Russia, China, and growing regional actors like the United Arab Emirates making significant diplomatic and economic inroads on the continent. This narrative suggests that these powers are displacing the influence of traditional colonial powers such as Britain and France. Notably, France, which once held considerable sway in nine out of sixteen francophone West African countries in 1980, now only has influence over three, according to our team’s Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity Index.
However, the “new scramble for Africa” fails to acknowledge that Russia’s presence on the continent is far from new. Ghana, Guinea, and Mali serve as examples where the Soviet Union, led by Russia, played a crucial role as an anti-colonial force, supporting Africans in their struggle for freedom from European and American oppression. Russia has maintained a diplomatic presence in most African countries for decades, having provided economic and military aid to socialist-leaning governments and liberation movements. More recently, Russia’s arms transfers to Africa have surged, accounting for approximately 40% of arms imports by African nations since 2018. Additionally, the state-sponsored Wagner mercenary group has become deeply involved in countries like the Central African Republic and Sudan, not only providing military training but also securing lucrative mining operations in exchange for a share of the profits.
While Russia’s overall trade with Africa is dwarfed by China’s, Russia still wields significant influence in the continent. Besides arms, Russia occupies a unique position in the agricultural sector, as Africa heavily relies on food imports. Disinformation campaigns have further bolstered Russian influence, with anti-colonialist memes translating into real street action in countries like Chad and Mali. Russia’s efforts have even garnered support at the United Nations, where several African nations have either voted against or abstained from condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine during the General Assembly votes.
Protests marked by waving Russian flags have become a recurring feature following political coups in African nations. Burkina Faso last year and now Niger this year epitomize this trend. To prevent these patterns from repeating, U.S. and European leaders must adapt their approach. If left unaddressed, projections indicate that the African continent will increasingly align itself with Russia’s “no limits friendship” with China, leaving the West falling further behind in aid, trade, arms transfers, and diplomatic engagement – critical avenues for international influence.
Reversing this tide requires the West to make substantial commitment toward expanding trade ties and investment in Africa. Previous trade deals have faced criticism for promoting unfair competition that undermines African workers. Therefore, new trade and investment agreements should prioritize fairness and sustainability, fostering the growth of African industries and the reduction of poverty.
Additionally, the United States and Europe should allocate more resources to organizations like the U.S. Agency for International Development, as their aid-based influence in sub-Saharan Africa is at stake. Furthermore, sharing power within international organizations, including granting greater authority to non-permanent members at the UN Security Council, would be instrumental in countering Russia’s growing sway.
Without proactive measures, it is likely that the sight of the Russian tricolor flag waving in African streets will become more common than that of the American or European flags. The West must act decisively to safeguard its interests and maintain influential partnerships with Africa on mutually beneficial terms.
Market Capital Research 