Republished with full copyright permissions from The Washington Daily Chronicle.

In the aftermath of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s brief rebellion against Russian President Vladimir Putin, it became evident that the Wagner Group, a mercenary organization led by Prigozhin, is determined to maintain its global influence. Despite a rift with the Russian state and Prigozhin’s alleged exile to Belarus, a recent report from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) sheds light on Wagner’s deep entrenchment across Central and West Africa. The report unveils the group’s involvement in training local militias, propping up fragile governments, and exploiting lucrative mineral rights. However, it also reveals a concerning rise in violence and civilian targeting in areas where Wagner operates.

ACLED’s analysis focuses on Wagner’s activities in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali, as well as its involvement in Ukraine. One striking observation is the group’s tendency to target civilians, including those associated with armed insurgencies, as part of its collaboration with government forces. Furthermore, Wagner mercenaries have been implicated in violence targeting miners, in an effort to maintain access to valuable natural resource sites like gold and diamonds. ACLED’s data reveals a surge in political violence involving Wagner, including civilian targeting, mass killings, abductions, cattle theft, extortion, and looting.

Wagner’s activities in Africa are largely driven by economic interests. The group combines military support with lucrative contracts, solidifying its disruptive presence on the continent. The report highlights the intertwined financial and political motivations behind Wagner’s activities, which extend beyond the CAR and Mali. Even if Wagner were to withdraw from the CAR, its influence on armed groups and mining sites could persist through other Prigozhin-linked companies.

The re-emergence of Yevgeny Prigozhin following the rebellion indicates his determination to enhance Wagner’s role in Africa. Prigozhin’s recent appearances at a summit in St. Petersburg, where he interacted with African officials, emphasized the group’s central position in Russia’s continental expansion plans. In CAR, where Wagner is estimated to have more than 5,000 fighters, Prigozhin declared control over the territory ahead of a constitutional referendum.

While the fate of Prigozhin remains uncertain, the report underscores that Wagner’s operations may not be curtailed. In the event of losing Russian government support, the organization may pivot towards generating revenue from its operations in Africa, including contracts for natural resources and exploitation of local populations. This could lead to increased violence and pillaging, posing significant concerns for civilians.

The ACLED report shines a spotlight on the deepening presence of the Wagner Group in Central and West Africa, exposing its involvement in training militias, supporting governments, and exploiting valuable resources. The rise in violence and civilian targeting within conflict zones where Wagner operates is alarming. Even with the uncertainty surrounding Prigozhin’s position, the group’s economic motivations and potential pursuit of new partnerships in Africa could perpetuate threats to both stability and civilians. Efforts to address these concerns require international attention and collaboration to mitigate the negative impact of Wagner’s activities and protect vulnerable populations.