After almost four decades in power, Prime Minister Hun Sen of Cambodia recently announced his decision to step down and make way for his successor, his son Hun Manet, who currently serves as the country’s army chief. This significant development marks the end of an era, as the 70-year-old Hun Sen relinquishes his position as Asia’s longest ruling leader. While he will continue to lead the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), this transition has garnered attention and raised questions about the future of Cambodia under Hun Manet’s leadership.
Hun Sen’s remarkable political journey began when he defected from the totalitarian Khmer Rouge and aligned with Vietnam. Following the Vietnamese army’s invasion of Cambodia in 1978, he was appointed as the country’s foreign minister, eventually becoming Prime Minister in 1985. On December 2021, he formally announced Hun Manet as his successor, a decision endorsed by the CPP. This announcement followed a controversial election marred by the exclusion of the main opposition party, condemned as “neither free nor fair” by the United States.
Some observers speculate that the Western-educated Hun Manet’s ascent to power may bring about a gradual shift towards liberalization and democratization in Cambodia. However, experts remain skeptical, suggesting that political patronage will impede significant reforms. Lee Morgenbesser, a Southeast Asia politics expert at Australia’s Griffith University, emphasizes the speed and trust placed on Hun Manet by his father, highlighting the numerous positions of power he has already held.
So, who is Hun Manet? As the oldest of five children, he grew up in Phnom Penh and joined the Cambodian military in 1995. Hun Manet’s impressive academic background includes graduating from the U.S. Military Academy West Point in 1999, earning a master’s degree in economics from New York University in 2002, and obtaining a PhD in economics from the U.K.’s Bristol University in 2008. He is married to Pich Chanmony, and together they have three children, including one who holds U.S. citizenship.
While his qualifications and accelerated rise within Cambodia’s ruling elite have been undeniable, Hun Manet’s leadership may be overshadowed by his involvement in severe repression and the curtailing of civil liberties. Organizations such as Human Rights Watch and Freedom House have raised concerns about Cambodia’s government, citing increasing internet surveillance, censorship, crackdown on human rights activists, political opposition, and free media.
Looking ahead, there are doubts about whether Hun Manet’s leadership will diverge significantly from his father’s. Morgenbesser cautions against the assumption that hereditary succession would bring a more favorable, moderate, progressive, or tolerant approach. History has shown that such transitions in dictatorships do not necessarily result in improved governance or human rights.
As for Hun Sen, although stepping down as Prime Minister, he remains an influential figure as the head of the ruling party. His decision to retain this position will allow his son to consolidate power while simultaneously leveraging his own influence over major policies, rewards distribution, and personnel appointments.
The future of Cambodia under Hun Manet’s premiership holds both uncertainties and continuities, leaving observers and diplomats to closely monitor the path the country will take. The hopes for genuine reform and democratic progress must be tempered with skepticism, as the legacy of a long-serving leader transfers to his son. Time will reveal what lies ahead for Cambodia as its political landscape enters a new phase.
Market Capital Research 