Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Thai Prime Minister who has been living in self-imposed exile for 15 years, is expected to make a much-anticipated return to Thailand next month. This development is likely to further exacerbate the ongoing political turmoil that has gripped the Southeast Asian nation since the general election in May. As Thaksin’s youngest daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, leads the pro-democracy coalition’s efforts to form a new government, the return of the controversial ex-leader holds significant implications for Thailand’s future.
Despite previous false alarms, Thaksin’s impending return appears to carry greater weight this time. In an Instagram post, Paetongtarn shared that her family is both delighted and concerned about his plan. Thaksin’s commitment to returning to Thailand becomes particularly significant given the recent efforts of the Pheu Thai Party, backed by Thaksin, to win over the conservative Senate and pro-royalist political parties to form a new government.
The pro-democracy coalition, led by the Pheu Thai Party, has repeatedly encountered obstacles in their quest to assume power. Despite securing a majority of lawmakers in the elected lower house, the coalition faces the challenge of obtaining a majority threshold in a joint sitting of the bicameral assembly. Their first Prime Minister candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, was blocked from assuming power due to conservative opposition to his reformist reform platforms, including amendments to Thailand’s harsh royal insult law.
Notably, Thaksin’s return carries significance due to his substantial following among rural voters, with parties associated with him securing the most seats in every national vote between 2001 and 2019. Nevertheless, Thaksin has lived overseas since 2008 to evade corruption charges, residing in various cities such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai, and London. Although he has been found guilty in absentia on multiple graft charges, facing a combined 10-year prison sentence, Thaksin maintains that these cases are politically motivated. He has expressed his willingness to engage in the legal process upon his return, dispelling rumors of seeking an amnesty from jail terms.
With her active involvement in the Pheu Thai Party and the possibility of being nominated for the premiership, Paetongtarn Shinawatra could spark a new era if her party secures the necessary support from lawmakers. Alongside her, Pheu Thai’s candidates include property magnate Srettha Thavisin and former attorney-general Chaikasem Nitisiri. While the party is yet to announce its final nominee, a recently postponed vote awaits a resolution from the Constitutional Court regarding the legality of the parliament’s rejection of Pita’s re-nomination.
Market Capital Research 